In good times, financial markets embrace Capitalism. In bad times, financial markets re-discover Socialism. Currently, the US Federal Reserve is engaged in a dangerous strategy to look after its Wall Street friends.
The origins of the current credit crisis lie in loose monetary policy and excessive capital flows that was turbo-charged by “financial engineering” techniques used by banks. Borrowing bought more borrowing fueling price increases in financial assets - debt, equity, property, infrastructure.
In recent months, major banks have reported losses of around US$ 45 billion on their investments. Up to US$ 1 trillion of assets are also on their way back onto bank balance sheets as complex off-balance sheet structures (Collateralised Debt Obligations, conduits issuing Asset Backed Commercial Paper and Structured Investment Vehicles) are unwound.
The major regulatory response has been cuts in the US Fed funds rate (0.75 % pa) and the discount rate. In recent weeks, the differential between inter-bank rates and the central bank targeted rates has widened to levels not seen since August. This points to further potential cuts in both rates by the end of the year. Lower cuts are inconsistent with above target inflation levels resulting from high oil prices, higher food prices, increasing cost pressures in emerging economies such as China and the potential inflationary effect of a weaker US dollar.
Between January 1960 and December 1974, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was substantially unchanged. This is despite significant periodic rallies during the “go-go years”. If inflation averaged 5% pa, then the value of the market (ignoring dividends) lost around half (50%) of its value in real (inflation adjusted) terms.
The Fed strategy also assists affected banks. The large writedowns in risky assets and the expected re-intermediation of assets means that some banks need large infusions of capital. Given recent performance and subdued profit outlook, it would be difficult for them to raise this capital at acceptable prices.
Lower short-term interest rates allow banks to borrow cheaply. The money can be used to purchase government bonds that provide higher returns than the cost of borrowing. This generates profits for the bank without the banks having to hold capital against their assets (banks generally are not required to hold capital against government securities). The profits help re-capitalize the bank. An added benefit is that the
Higher inflation expectations are already evident in higher gold prices, the steeper US yield curve (long term rates are higher than short-term rates) and the weaker US dollar. Foreign investors, especially large sovereign investment funds, are switching from financial assets (bonds) to “real” assets (companies with real businesses) reflecting higher inflationary expectations.
The strategy is dangerous. Inflation can lead to a significant transfer of wealth from investors to borrowers. Inflation once embedded in the economy distorts economic activity such as investment and savings. The experience of the late 1970s and early 1980s highlights the difficulties in recapturing the inflation beast once uncaged. Paul Volcker, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve, bravely increased interest rates to stratospheric levels to squeeze inflation out of the financial system.
The strategy may also not work. The cuts in rate do not appear to have had the desired effect in improving market liquidity conditions. Default risk concerns continue to inhibit lending and other routine financial transactions. Lower rates may set off further bubbles – for example, in equities and emerging markets. Asset prices may fall sharply anyway. In fairness to Dr. Bernanke, he has limited policy alternatives available.
Central bankers have stated that “errant” banks and investors will not be “bailed out”. Actual actions suggest otherwise. Banks have played their “nuclear” option well. The specter of “systemic risk” – whether real or not - is one a central banker cannot ignore. The strategy has attracted little scrutiny or comment despite being implemented by unelected officials with public money and without any transparent political debate.
The banks continue to privatize gains and socialize losses. Socialism for Wall Street will prevail, once again.
© 2008 Satyajit Das All Rights reserved.
Satyajit Das is a risk consultant and author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives (2006, FT-Prentice Hall).