Monday, October 27, 2008

New Home Sales Down 33%; Prices Fall 9%

New Home Sales Down 33%; Prices Fall 9%

There was some good news in New Home Sales Data, despite those ugly headlines: Inventories continue to slide downwards, as builders slash prices. They fell over 7% for the month alone.

Commerce Department:

Sales of new one-family houses in September 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.7 percent (±12.1%)* above the revised August rate of 452,000, but is 33.1 percent (±8.9%) below the September
2007 estimate of 694,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2008 was $218,400; the average sales price was $275,500. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 394,000. This represents a supply of 10.4 months at the current sales rate.

One other thing to note: Note the monthly 2.7% increase was based in part on last month's being revised downwards, making the differential look bigger (this month is also likely to be revised downwards). Annualized sales for the month was 464k; Actual unadjusted monthly new home sales are about 35-45k, down from 100-120k (before they get annualized).

New Home Sales, AnnualizedNew_home_sales_09_08chart

Chart via Barron's Econoday

>

Calculated Risk continues to run the best New Home Sales Chart -- the monthly, non seasonally adjusted comparisons with each prior year:

New Home Sales, Monthly, NSANew_home_sales_monthly_nsa_0908

Chart via Calculated Risk

Source:
NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN SEPTEMBER 2008
Manufacturing and Construction Division
http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html
PDF

1 comment:

Barry Ritholtz said...

stop stealing entire posts of mine