Monday, December 29, 2008

Harry Schultz is newsletter of the year

Newsletter of the year? Harry Schultz. Really. 
Commentary: His prescient call of the ‘financial tsunami’ is the reason why 
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch 
Last update: 11:14 p.m. EST Dec. 28, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — My choice for investment letter of the year: The International Harry Shultz Letter.

I usually say that my selection method is highly scientific (I choose whoever I feel like). And I have to say it particularly loudly this year.

Schultz was Letter of the Year in 2005. See Dec. 29, 2005 column, which explains his nuanced gold-bug philosophy in more detail

But over the past 12 months through November, Schultz is down a heart-stopping 76.05% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, vs. negative 36.68% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000.

This loss has wiped out Shultz’s strong post-2000 run, when he benefited from the gold and commodities boom. Now, over the past 10 years, the HFD shows the letter achieving an annualized loss of negative 8.73%, even worse than the negative 1.16% annualized loss for the total return DJ-Wilshire 5000.

And it’s an unpleasant arithmetical fact that even future triple-digit gains (which aren’t impossible) will not dig Schultz out of this hole.

(But, if you’re a new investor starting at the bottom, who cares?)

The reason I pick Schultz: the extraordinary prescience he showed in predicting what he called a "financial tsunami" well over a year ago. See Oct. 19 column

Well? He was right, wasn’t he?

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